I hope this hasn’t already been posted, but I wanted to share a NYT story I’ve linked to numerous times tonight that has me immeasurably reassured. No matter the idiotic bluster about competing in blue states like California, NJ and NY, Trump strategists are privately saying that Hair Furor’s only chance of winning rests on three states: Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. In fact, these are the only three states Trump will be actively trying to win, depending on a skeleton crew of organizers and hoping beyond hope to hang on to the Romney states..well, just because.
Donald J. Trump, confronting a daunting electoral map and a significant financial disadvantage, is preparing to fall back from an expansive national campaign and concentrate the bulk of his time and money on just three or four states that his campaign believes he must sweep in order to win the presidency.
Even as Mr. Trump has ticked up in national polls in recent weeks, senior Republicans say his path to the 270 Electoral College votes needed for election has remained narrow — and may have grown even more precarious. It now looks exceedingly difficult for him to assemble even the barest Electoral College majority without beating Hillary Clinton in a trifecta of the biggest swing states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Trump’s campaign has already ceded Colorado, where HRC pulled advertising recently, as well as Virginia, thanks to the presence of popular Sen. Tim Kaine on the ticket (as a recently transplanted Virginian, I think Virginia would have been a huge stretch for Trump with or without Kaine; with him, however, it’s off the table for good). The story notes that North Carolina is in play and the campaign will have to fight to retain former sure-thing states like Georgia and Arizona. Pence is scheduled to campaign in Tucson and Phoenix next week. I have read elsewhere that the Clinton campaign plans to send Bill to Utah soon to try to make that improbable state a battleground.
While Mr. Trump is not ready to give up entirely on any of the major battlegrounds, advisers have become increasingly convinced that his most plausible route to the presidency, and perhaps his only realistic victory scenario, involves capturing all three of the biggest contested electoral prizes on the map, and keeping North Carolina in the Republican column.
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The primary “super PAC” backing Mr. Trump, Rebuilding America Now, is taking an identical approach: It has reserved airtime only in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. The main outside group supporting Mrs. Clinton, Priorities USA Action, is advertising in those three states and half a dozen more.
The article goes on to note Trump’s lack of infrastructure, funding, and capability of matching the Clinton ground game. Basically, according to the article, Trump will have to retain all Romney states (some of which are quite weak for him) and run the table in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida in order to win. This article was written before any convention bounce appeared for Sec. Clinton.
One factor not noted in the article is that, in spite of the polling, which shows a close race, Ohio Gov. John Kasich has been a notable Trump critic. He tweeted strong support for the Khans tonight :
xThere's only one way to talk about Gold Star parents: with honor and respect. Capt. Khan is a hero. Together, we should pray for his family.
— John Kasich (@JohnKasich) July 31, 2016In addition, Kasich’s political strategist, John Weaver, has been all over Twitter condemning Trump for his litany of awful and stupid statements over the past few days. Teacher Ken has diaried many of his condemnations. Here is just the most recent one:
xCaught something on news. Some guy jumped out of a plane from 25,000 feet without a chute? Was it Mike Pence?
— John Weaver (@JWGOP) July 31, 2016I think Trump will find Ohio tough going with the powers-that-be openly opposing him and ridiculing him at every turn. Trump’s exceedingly narrow path is narrowing more every time he opens his mouth and steps into a new pile of manure.
I hope this article gives other nervous types like myself a bit of comfort. We need to work and work hard to stop this awful man from becoming President. But knowing his flimsy game plan gives us an edge and a tool to defeat him.